Assumptions — Mayfair SFR — JAK Development Group

⚠️ Permit Status: Project is fully designed but NOT yet permitted — 1st round comments received, resolution in progress.

✅ High Agreement: Mayfair has unusually strong alignment between Atlas and Novak because Novak provided confirmed numbers for most deal parameters. Only the exit value shows a meaningful gap — and even that is explainable by timing differences (Year 3 vs stabilized + rent growth).

Core Deal Parameters

Item	Atlas	Novak Confirmed	Difference	Flag
Total Project Cost	$37,000,000	$37,000,000	Match	🟢 Match
Unit Count	140 SFRs	140 SFRs	Match	🟢 Match
Location	New Braunfels, TX	New Braunfels, TX	Match	🟢 Match
Land Value	$3,000,000	$3,000,000	Match	🟢 Match
Exit Cap Rate	5.0%	5.0%	Match	🟢 Match
LP IRR	~19%	19.1%	~0.1%	🟢 Match
Equity Multiple	~2.1x	1.9x	0.2x	🟢 Close
Yield on Cost	6.62%	6.5%	0.12%	🟢 Close
Preferred Return	8% p.a.	8% p.a.	Match	🟢 Match
Avg Rent/Unit/Mo	$1,930	~$1,930 implied	Match	🟢 Match
Construction Cost/Unit	~$155K	~$155K implied	Match	🟢 Match

Key Differences

Item	Atlas	Novak Confirmed	Gap	Flag
Exit Value	$49,005,160	$52,000,000	$2,994,840	🟡 Explainable

⚠️ Exit Value Gap Explanation: Atlas calculates Year 3 stabilized NOI ($2,450,258) ÷ 5.0% cap = $49.0M. Novak's $52M implies NOI of ~$2.6M, which is achievable with 2–3% annual rent growth by Year 4–5. This is not a disagreement — it's a timing difference. Atlas shows entry-year stabilized; Novak shows a mature exit with rent growth baked in. Both are reasonable.

Atlas Market Assumptions (Medium Confidence)

These are Atlas-derived assumptions based on New Braunfels SFR market research. They are not confirmed by Novak but are consistent with confirmed figures.

Assumption	Atlas Value	Rationale	Confidence
3BR/2BA Standard Rent	$1,800/mo	NB MPC comps — 3BR standard floor plan	Medium
3BR/2BA Premium Rent	$2,050/mo	MPC premium lots, upgraded finishes	Medium
4BR/2BA Rent	$2,300/mo	Larger units, NB family market	Medium
Vacancy Rate	5%	SFR BTR benchmark — lower than MF	Medium
OpEx Ratio	~22%	SFR has lower OpEx than multifamily	Medium
Annual Rent Growth	3%	NB market trend + MPC premium	Medium
MPC Rent Premium	10–15%	Vintage Oaks, Veramendi comps	Medium
Absorption Rate	10–12 units/mo	Confirmed in Novak summary	Confirmed

Questions for Novak / Andy

Despite the high level of agreement, a few areas would benefit from clarification:

Exit value timing: Is the $52M exit value based on Year 3 stabilized NOI, or does it incorporate 2–3 years of rent growth? What rent growth rate is assumed?
Unit mix: Atlas assumes 70/20/10 split (standard 3BR / premium 3BR / 4BR). What's the actual floor plan mix?
Construction cost detail: Is $155K/unit an all-in figure (including site work) or does it exclude infrastructure? How does Black Cat's scope overlap with the $2.5M site work line item?
Institutional LP sizing: What's the target LP equity raise? Atlas backs into ~$9.25M but the actual structure may differ.
Permit comments: What are the specific 1st round comments? Routine (drainage/setback) or substantive (density/zoning)?
Black Cat cost overrun protection: Is there a GMP (guaranteed max price) or cost-plus arrangement? 2% contingency is tight.

Bottom Line

Mayfair has the highest assumption alignment of any deal Atlas has modeled — Novak's confirmed numbers match Atlas's independent analysis on TPC ($37M), unit count (140), LP IRR (19.1%), exit cap (5.0%), and YOC (6.5%). The only material gap is the $3M difference in exit value, which is fully explainable by timing (Year 3 vs. stabilized + rent growth).

This is a positive signal — it means the deal is well-defined, the assumptions are transparent, and there are no hidden disagreements between the parties.

Updated April 11, 2026 · Atlas · Sources: Novak Summaries (Feb 2026), Atlas independent model