📊 Dashboard — Original vs. Current
🔥 Key Finding: Lot 2 is being subdivided N/S — Lot 2 North (~3 ac) has a Suds car wash LOI at $27/SF, and Lot 2 South (~13 ac) becomes the third MF pad (equivalent to MF Pad #3). Even at $27/SF, the Suds offer on Lot 2 North represents an 80% premium over the original $15/SF projection. Note: Lot 2 North sale cannot close until N/S subdivision is approved.
📋 Original Projection (2023 Offering)
Total Net Proceeds$27,357K
Levered IRR43.7%
Unlevered IRR36.3%
Equity Multiple2.32x
Timeline to Exit36 months
Total Equity$9,648,500
📈 Current Actual / Estimate (April 2026)
Total Net Proceeds (est.)~$28,500K – $30,000K *
Estimated Levered IRR~30–35% **
Estimated Equity Multiple~2.1–2.5x **
Timeline to Exit~42–48 months
Lots Closed1 of 5 (20%)
Lot 2 North (Suds)$27/SF · pending subdivision
* Net proceeds estimate: Assumes Lot 1 near original (~$6.4M), Lot 2 North (Suds) at $27/SF (~$3.5M on ~3 ac, pending subdivision), Lot 2 South as MF Pad #3 (TBD), Lot 3 near original (~$8.6M), Lot 4 at $15–25/SF (~$0.9–1.4M). Range depends on actual Lot 1 closing statement, Lot 2 subdivision approval, Lot 3 final terms, and Lot 4 marketing outcome.
** IRR note: IRR is lower than original 43.7% despite higher total proceeds because the timeline extended from ~36 to ~42–48 months. Belmont closed at Month 27 vs. projected Month 15. The longer hold period compresses IRR even when dollar returns increase. Lot 2 subdivision adds additional complexity and time before Lot 2 North can close.
🏗️ Lot-by-Lot Analysis — Original vs. Current
| Lot |
Acres |
Original $/Unit |
Original Net |
Status |
Current Estimate |
Variance |
| Lot 1 (Belmont) |
15.2 |
$25/door · 300 units |
$6,365K |
✅ CLOSED |
TBD (actual from closing docs) |
TBD |
Lot 2 North
Retail/Car wash · needs subdivision |
~3.0 |
$15/SF (original) |
$1,241K (was ~2 ac) |
⚠️ PENDING SUBDIV |
Suds LOI $27/SF → ~$3,528K est. |
+$2,287K est. 🔥 |
Lot 2 South
MF Pad #3 · needs subdivision |
~13.0 |
N/A (new lot) |
N/A |
📢 AVAILABLE |
TBD — MF developer (NRP or similar) |
TBD |
| Lot 3 (Preakness) |
15.6 |
$27.50/door · 330 units |
$8,621K |
🤝 CONTRACT |
TBD (contract price) |
TBD |
| Lot 4 (Retail) |
~2.2 |
$15/SF |
$869K |
📢 MARKETING |
TBD |
— |
| TOTAL |
$17,096K |
|
~$20,000K+ (est., incl. Lot 2 South MF) |
+$2,000K+ (est. minimum) |
Lot 2 Structure — N/S Subdivision Required: Lot 2 must be subdivided North/South before either piece can be sold. Lot 2 North (~3 ac, ~250ft depth along Slaughter) has a Suds car wash LOI at $27/SF — 80% above the original $15/SF projection. Lot 2 South (~13 ac) becomes MF Pad #3, available to NRP or a similar multifamily developer. ⚠️ Subdivision approval must be obtained before either piece can close.
Note on MF Lots: The offering projected MF pad sales on a per-door basis ($25–$30/door). Lot 1 (Belmont) closed to NRP Group with a $760K buyer credit for regional detention pond infrastructure. Lot 3 (Preakness) is under contract with NRP — final terms depend on boundary resolution. Per-door pricing for these MF lots is driven by Austin multifamily development demand, which has remained solid through 2025–2026 despite broader market headwinds.
🏛️ Capital Stack (Original)
LP $6.65M (45.4%)
GP $3M (20.5%)
Debt $5M (34.1%)
| Source | Amount | % of Total | Terms |
|---|
| LP Class A Preferred Equity |
$6,648,500 |
45.4% |
8% annual pref (non-compounding) · Return of capital before profit split |
| GP Equity (Highside RE) |
$3,000,000 |
20.5% |
Co-invest by John Burns + Kent McNeil · Subordinate to LP pref |
| Project Debt |
$5,000,000 |
34.1% |
Senior secured · Project-level |
| Total Project Cost |
$14,648,500 |
100% |
|
| Fee / Expense | Amount | Timing |
|---|
| Acquisition Fee (3%) | $300,000 | At closing of land acquisition |
| Asset Management Fee | Ongoing | Throughout hold period |
📈 Return Analysis
Original Projection
Levered IRR43.7%
Unlevered IRR36.3%
Equity Multiple2.32x
Total Net Proceeds$27,357K
Profit to Equity$12,709K
Hold Period36 months
Current Trajectory (Lot 2 N/S subdivision plan)
Estimated Levered IRR~30–35%
Estimated Equity Multiple~2.1–2.5x
Est. Total Net Proceeds$28,500K – $30,000K
Lot 2 North (Suds $27/SF)+$2,287K est. (pending subdiv.)
Hold Period (est.)42–48 months
IRR Impact↓ compressed by time
Why IRR may be lower despite higher proceeds: IRR is time-sensitive. The original projection assumed all lots close by Month 36. Belmont didn't close until Month ~27 (vs. projected Month 15), and the remaining lots will likely close between Month 42–48. The extended timeline compresses IRR even though total dollar returns may actually exceed the original projection. The equity multiple is the better metric here — it captures the total cash-on-cash return regardless of timing. Lot 2 N/S subdivision adds additional time before Lot 2 North (Suds) can close.
📊 Sensitivity — Lot 3 (Preakness) Closing Price Impact
How do different Preakness closing prices affect total project returns? (Assumes Lot 1 at $6.4M, Lot 2 North at $27/SF Suds, Lot 2 South as MF TBD, Lot 4 at $15/SF)
| Lot 3 Price/Door |
Lot 3 Net Proceeds |
Total Project Net |
Est. Equity Multiple |
vs. Original |
| $22.50/door | ~$6,750K | ~$27,100K | ~2.1x | -$250K |
| $25.00/door | ~$7,500K | ~$27,850K | ~2.2x | +$500K |
| $27.50/door (original) | $8,621K | ~$29,000K | ~2.4x | +$1,650K |
| $30.00/door | ~$9,000K | ~$29,400K | ~2.5x | +$2,050K |
| $32.50/door | ~$9,750K | ~$30,150K | ~2.6x | +$2,800K |
Note: The "vs. Original" column compares to the original total projection of $27,357K. Lot 2 North's Suds offer at $27/SF adds value above original $15/SF underwriting. Lot 2 South as a third MF pad provides additional upside not in the original offering (original had only 2 MF pads). Both Lot 2 North and Lot 2 South require N/S subdivision approval before they can close.
💧 Distribution Waterfall
↓
1. LP Preferred Return — 8% p.a. (Non-Compounding)
Class A LPs receive 8% annual preferred return on contributed capital before any other distributions. Non-compounding — accrues as a flat annual percentage on original investment.
↓
2. Return of LP Capital
After preferred return, LP investors receive return of contributed capital ($6,648,500 total).
↓
3. Return of GP Capital
GP receives return of contributed capital ($3,000,000).
↓
4. Profit Split
Remaining proceeds split between GP and LP per the partnership agreement terms. (Specific split ratios per HSRE Partnership #10 LLC operating agreement.)
📅 Expected Distribution Schedule by Lot Closing
| Event | Timing | Estimated Proceeds | Distribution Type |
|---|
| ✅ Lot 1 (Belmont) Close |
Feb 24, 2026 |
TBD (actual) |
Distribution #1 — Partial return of capital + pref |
| Lot 3 (Preakness) Close |
PENDING — est. H2 2026 |
~$8.6M (at original terms) |
Likely: remaining pref + substantial capital return |
| Lot 2 North Close (Suds) |
TBD — post-subdivision approval |
~$3.5M est. (at $27/SF on ~3 ac) |
Requires N/S subdivision approval first · Capital return |
| Lot 2 South Close (MF Pad #3) |
TBD — post-subdivision approval |
TBD — MF developer (NRP or similar) |
Requires same subdivision approval · TBD |
| Lot 4 Close |
TBD — est. late 2026/early 2027 |
~$0.9–1.4M |
Final distribution + entity wind-down |
📅 Timeline — Original Projection vs. Actual
📋 Original Projection
Land AcquisitionMonth 0 (2023)
Subdivision CompleteMonth 6–12
Lot 1 (MF Pad #1) SaleMonth 15
Lot 3 (MF Pad #2) SaleMonth 24
Lot 2 (Retail P2) SaleMonth 36
Lot 4 (Retail P3) SaleMonth 36
Full ExitMonth 36
📈 Actual / Current
Land Acquisition2023 ✅
Subdivision Complete2024 ✅
Lot 1 (Belmont) CloseFeb 2026 ✅ (~Mo 27)
Lot 3 (Preakness)Pending — boundary matter
Lot 2Marketing — offers in hand
Lot 4Marketing — in progress
Est. Full Exit~Mo 42–48
Timeline Variance: Belmont closed ~12 months behind the original projection (Month 27 vs. Month 15). The primary drivers were: (1) market softness in Austin multifamily during 2024–2025, (2) extended NRP contract negotiations requiring multiple amendments, and (3) regional infrastructure coordination (detention pond). The remaining lots are tracking 6–12 months behind original timelines, but Lot 2 has strong marketing momentum with offers in hand.
🔮 Projected Remaining Timeline
| Milestone | Estimated Date | Confidence | Notes |
|---|
| Lot 3 (Preakness) Close |
H2 2026 |
MEDIUM |
Boundary matter with Kutak Rock — closing after resolution |
| Lot 2 N/S Subdivision Approved |
TBD — in process |
MEDIUM |
Must be approved before Lot 2 North OR South can close |
| Lot 2 North Under Contract (Suds) |
Post-subdivision approval |
MEDIUM |
Suds car wash LOI at $27/SF — ~3 ac along Slaughter |
| Lot 2 North Close |
TBD — post-subdivision |
MEDIUM |
Suds car wash · ~$3.5M est. at $27/SF on ~3 ac |
| Lot 2 South Close (MF Pad #3) |
TBD — post-subdivision |
LOW |
~13 ac MF pad · NRP or similar buyer · TBD pricing |
| Lot 4 Under Contract |
Q3–Q4 2026 |
LOW |
Marketing in early stages |
| Lot 4 Close |
Q4 2026 – Q1 2027 |
LOW |
Last lot — full exit upon close |
| Entity Wind-Down |
Q1–Q2 2027 |
LOW |
Final distributions and partnership dissolution |
📑 Sources & Assumptions
| Data Point | Source | Confidence | Notes |
|---|
| Original IRR, EM, pro forma |
Slaughter Park Offering Summary 2023 |
HIGH |
Directly from the offering document provided to LP investors |
| Capital stack & fees |
Slaughter Park Offering Summary 2023 |
HIGH |
GP/LP equity, debt, acquisition fee, management fee |
| Lot 1 (Belmont) close date |
Closing documents on file |
HIGH |
Confirmed closed Feb 24, 2026 |
| Lot 1 actual proceeds |
Closing statement / HUD-1 |
TBD — PENDING |
Need actual closing statement figures to fill in |
| Lot 2 — Suds LOI $27/SF |
Sean Murphy / LOI on file |
MEDIUM |
Suds car wash LOI on Lot 2 North (~3 ac) — pending subdivision approval to proceed |
| Lot 2 — N/S subdivision requirement |
John Burns / deal structure |
HIGH |
Lot 2 must be subdivided N/S before either piece (North or South) can close |
| Lot 3 contract status |
9th Amendment executed |
HIGH |
$50K deposit, 6-month extension — confirmed |
| Lot 3 closing price |
NRP contract terms |
TBD — PENDING |
Final price depends on boundary resolution |
| Lot 4 status |
Sean Murphy marketing updates |
MEDIUM |
No offers received — early marketing stage |
| IRR / EM estimates (current) |
Atlas analysis based on available data |
ESTIMATE |
Rough estimates — not audited. Actual returns depend on all 4 lots closing. |
⚠️ Important: All "current estimate" figures are preliminary and based on incomplete data. Actual returns will depend on: (1) Lot 1 actual closing proceeds (net of $760K buyer credit), (2) Lot 3 final closing terms after boundary resolution, (3) which Lot 2 offer progresses and at what final price, and (4) Lot 4 marketing outcome. Items marked TBD require additional data to complete.
Placeholder Items to Fill:
• Lot 1 actual net proceeds (from closing statement)
• Distribution #1 actual amount per LP unit
• Lot 3 contract price (from NRP agreement)
• Accrued preferred return calculation (8% p.a. from funding date)
• Lot 4 comparable market pricing (from Sean Murphy)