Financial Department
Underwriting ยท Pro Formas ยท Waterfall Models ยท Deal Screening ยท Returns Analysis
March 31, 2026
๐Ÿค– Atlas ยท Active
๐ŸŽฏ New Deal? Run a Quick Screen
Send Atlas the deal details via Telegram and get a one-page underwriting screen in minutes โ€” location, market context, preliminary returns, fit with investment criteria, go/no-go with reasoning.
๐Ÿ“ฑ Trigger: "Quick screen: [address / deal description]"
๐Ÿ“ฑ Full model: "Build a pro forma for [project]"
๐Ÿ“ฑ Waterfall: "Model a [X/Y] waterfall for [project]"
โšก Financial Workflows
๐Ÿ”
Deal Screen (5-Min)
New deal lands in your inbox. Atlas runs a quick screen โ€” location, comps, preliminary returns, fit with criteria, risks. One-page output in under 5 minutes.
๐Ÿ“ฑ "Quick screen: [deal details]"
๐Ÿ“Š
Pro Forma Build
Full financial model from scratch. Atlas pulls market comps, asks key questions, builds the model, and produces a sensitivity table across bull/mid/bear cases.
๐Ÿ“ฑ "Build a pro forma for [project]"
๐Ÿ’ง
Waterfall Modeler
Model any JV waterfall structure โ€” tiered promotes, preferred returns, IRR hurdles, catch-ups. Compare structures side by side with lot-by-lot or year-by-year distributions.
๐Ÿ“ฑ "Model a [X/Y] waterfall for [project]"
๐Ÿ“ˆ
Sensitivity Analysis
What happens if pricing drops 10%? If costs run 15% over? If the timeline slips 6 months? Atlas models the downside so you know your walk-away before the deal does.
๐Ÿ“ฑ "Run sensitivity on [project] โ€” change [assumption]"
๐Ÿ“‰
Return on Capital
Across all active deals โ€” what's committed, what's projected, what's returned. Portfolio-level IRR, equity multiple, and capital efficiency at a glance.
๐Ÿ“ฑ "Show me portfolio returns"
๐Ÿ—๏ธ
Fee Analyzer
Model disposition fees, asset management fees, construction management fees, and promotes across any deal structure. Shows total BBM compensation under each scenario.
๐Ÿ“ฑ "What are BBM's total fees on [project]?"
๐Ÿ“‹ Active Financial Matters ๐Ÿค– March 31, 2026
MatterProjectTypeStatusKey NumberNext Action
3-Tier Waterfall โ€” Kohlenberg JV Kohlenberg Waterfall Model โœ… Modeled BBM: 14.9x ยท LO: 1.5x Walk through on Gissler call
Pro Forma v3 โ€” Thaxton Corner Thaxton Pro Forma ๐Ÿ”ต Current $11M gross ยท $2.6M net ยท 35% margin Update after Mahoney meeting Apr 1
Pro Forma โ€” Kohlenberg Scenarios A & B Kohlenberg Pro Forma ๐Ÿ”ต Current A: $24.5M ยท B: $30-32M Update after survey confirms net acreage
BTR Analysis โ€” Mayfair Mayfair Pro Forma ๐ŸŸก Pending JV TBD โ€” JV structure drives returns Wait for Novak JV execution
Pro Forma โ€” Dallas McKinney Dallas Pro Forma ๐ŸŸก Incomplete 32 unit luxury MF โ€” GC pricing needed Get GC pricing from Andy
๐Ÿ’ง Kohlenberg โ€” 3-Tier Waterfall Snapshot Full model โ†’
T1
70% BBM / 30% LO
Until BBM receives 1.5x cash in ($783K)
โœ“ Achieved at Lot 1 (QT Anchor, Month 15) โ€” BBM gets $1.39M, LO gets $2.60M
T2
20% BBM / 80% LO
Until LO recovers full $9M land credit
โœ“ Achieved at Lot 5 (Month 24) โ€” LO fully recovered
T3
50% BBM / 50% LO
True profit split โ€” same endpoint as flat 50/50
Lots 6-9 (Months 27-38) โ€” $7.19M shared equally
๐Ÿ“… Kohlenberg โ€” Distribution Timeline
Month
Event
BBM Receives
LO Receives
Pre-Development Phase
Mo 0
JV Executed โ€” BBM invests $522K
($522,000)
Land in
Mo 3
Survey authorized & underway
โ€”
โ€”
Mo 6
Entitlement submitted to Comal County
โ€”
โ€”
Mo 12
Plat approved โ€” active marketing begins
โ€”
โ€”
Lot Closings โ€” Both Parties Receiving Cash
Mo 15
๐Ÿช Lot 1 โ€” QT Anchor closes ($4.2M gross) ยท T1+T2
+$1,392,286
+$2,604,714
Mo 18
๐Ÿ— Lot 2 โ€” QSR Pad A closes ($2.8M gross) ยท T2
+$555,000
+$2,108,000
Mo 20
๐Ÿ— Lot 3 โ€” QSR Pad B closes ($2.4M gross) ยท T2
+$475,000
+$1,804,000
Mo 22
๐Ÿš— Lot 4 โ€” Car Wash closes ($1.8M gross) ยท T2
+$356,000
+$1,352,000
Mo 24
๐Ÿช Lot 5 โ€” Retail Strip A closes ยท T2+T3 ยท LO fully recovered
+$632,768
+$1,459,232 โœ“
50/50 Profit Split Phase โ€” Lots 6-9
Mo 27
๐Ÿช Lot 6 โ€” Retail Strip B closes ยท T3
+$1,008,500
+$987,500
Mo 30
๐Ÿฆ Lot 7 โ€” Bank/Medical closes ยท T3
+$914,000
+$895,000
Mo 33
๐Ÿ“ฆ Lot 8 โ€” Outparcel closes ยท T3
+$768,500
+$752,500
Mo 38
๐Ÿ—๏ธ Lot 9 โ€” Final Phase closes ยท T3
+$1,687,500
+$1,652,500
TOTAL
All lots closed โ€” deal complete
$7,789,554
$13,615,446
๐Ÿ“Š Scenario A vs B โ€” Final Comparison
Scenario A โ€” Entitlement + Lot Sale (Preferred)
BBM Cash In$522,000
Gross Proceeds$22.5M
BBM Total Return$7,789,554
BBM Multiple14.9x
LO Total Return$13,615,446
LO Multiple1.51x
BBM Disposition Fees$225,000
Timeline~38 months
Risk LevelLower
Scenario B โ€” Full Horizontal (Reference)
BBM Cash In$3,080,000
Gross Proceeds$30-32M
BBM Total Return~$9-11M
BBM Multiple~3-3.5x
LO Total Return~$15-17M
LO Multiple1.7-1.9x
BBM Fees (Disp+Const)~$348,000
Timeline~48-54 months
Risk LevelHigher
๐Ÿ’ผ HSRE/BBM/JAK Standard Fee Structure
FeeRateBasisWhen EarnedApplies To
Disposition Fee 1% Gross sales price per lot/unit At each closing All projects โ€” off top before waterfall
Asset Management Fee 1% / year Equity raised from friends & family Annual, during hold When F&F equity is in the deal
Construction Mgmt Fee 4% Hard construction/infrastructure costs As hard costs are incurred Scenario B / horizontal development only
Development Mgmt Fee TBD $195K flat or 1% gross (whichever greater) Drawn during project Entitlement-only deals (Scenario A)