⚠️ PERMIT EXPIRED — $800K to update plans and re-permit. 8-month timeline. Not reflected in Andy's original assumptions.
What Is This Page?
Atlas built an independent pro forma for Radiant Active Adult using market research and Active Adult industry benchmarks. This page compares Atlas's assumptions against Andy's F&F materials line by line.
Where numbers match: confidence is high. Where they differ: Atlas explains the reasoning and flags which number to trust. Andy's full project budget has not been shared — several of Andy's figures are estimated from the F&F investor deck and JAK operational terms.
Master Comparison Table
| Item |
Atlas |
Andy (Est.) |
Difference |
Flag |
| Total Project Cost |
$49,767,000 |
~$49,800,000 |
−$33K (0.1%) |
Match |
| Unit Count |
214 |
214 |
— Match |
Confirmed |
| Avg Rent / Unit / Mo |
$2,244 |
~$2,200–2,500 |
Within range |
Close |
| Construction Cost / Unit (All-In Hard) |
$167,000 |
~$180–200K |
−$13K to −$33K |
Atlas Lower |
| Cost / Unit (Total, All-In) |
$226,214 |
~$226K |
~$0 (0%) |
Match |
| Exit Cap Rate |
5.25% |
5.0–5.5% |
Mid-range |
Close |
| Stabilized Occupancy |
95% |
~94% |
+1% |
Atlas Higher |
| Active Adult Premium vs Std MF |
10–12% |
Not specified |
— |
Atlas Only |
| IRR (Project Level) |
22.7% |
~22.7% |
Match |
Match |
| F&F Equity Raise |
$5,500,000 |
$5,500,000 |
Exact match |
Match |
| F&F LP IRR |
22.7% |
22.7% |
Confirmed |
Match |
| Preferred Return |
8% |
8% |
Match |
Match |
| F&F Split (above pref) |
80% LP / 20% JAK |
80% LP / 20% JAK |
Confirmed |
Match |
Overall alignment is strong. TPC, project IRR, F&F terms, and exit cap range all match or are within range. The three areas worth examining: construction cost per unit (Atlas lower), occupancy assumption (Atlas slightly higher), and the Active Adult rent premium (Atlas models explicitly, Andy does not specify).
🔍 Deep Dive #1: Construction Cost Per Unit
Atlas Hard Cost / Unit$167,000
Andy's Estimated Range$180,000–$200,000
DifferenceAtlas is $13K–$33K lower
Why Atlas Is Lower
Atlas breaks hard costs into three components: base building ($140K/unit), sitework ($15K/unit), and Active Adult amenity package ($12K/unit) = $167K total. This uses mid-range Austin construction data for Type V wood-frame, 3-story product.
Why Andy May Be Higher
- Product quality. If Radiant is positioned as premium Active Adult (competing with Watermere), Andy may be budgeting higher-end finishes, thicker walls for sound isolation, wider hallways, and ADA-enhanced features — all standard for 55+ product.
- Amenity scope. Atlas budgets $12K/unit ($2.64M) for amenities. If Andy's amenity package is more extensive (e.g., full-service restaurant, indoor pool, wellness spa), hard costs climb.
- GC markup / contingency. Andy may be including the general contractor's fee and contingency inside the hard cost line, while Atlas separates these into soft costs.
Which number to trust? Andy's is likely more accurate for this specific project — he has the actual design specifications and GC bids. Atlas's number is a market-average estimate. The $13K–$33K difference doesn't change the project economics materially because TPC aligns regardless (Andy allocates costs differently between hard/soft). Watch the total, not the line items.
🔍 Deep Dive #2: Stabilized Occupancy
Atlas Assumption95% (5% vacancy)
Andy's Assumption~94%
DifferenceAtlas 1% higher
NOI Impact of 1%~$60K/year
Why Atlas Uses 95%
Active Adult communities historically stabilize at 95–97% occupancy — significantly above standard multifamily (92–94%). The 55+ demographic signs longer leases (avg 20 months vs. 12), has lower eviction rates, and is more deliberate about housing decisions. Once they move in, they stay.
Why 94% May Be More Conservative
- Austin is currently soft. Metro vacancy is 14.2% (Matthews Q4 2025). Even though Active Adult runs tighter, starting from an elevated vacancy environment adds risk.
- New product risk. Radiant is a new community with no operating history. First-year stabilization carries more uncertainty than a mature property.
- Limited Austin AA comps. With fewer than 5 purpose-built Active Adult communities in Austin, the sample size for occupancy data is small.
Verdict: The 1% difference is immaterial (~$60K/year NOI impact). Both assumptions are reasonable. Atlas's 95% is supported by national Active Adult data; Andy's 94% is a sensible haircut for Austin's current market conditions. Use 94% for conservative underwriting and 95% as the upside case.
🔍 Deep Dive #3: Active Adult Rent Premium
Atlas AA Premium10–12% over standard MF
Andy's PositionNot explicitly stated
Industry Range10–15%
How Atlas Derives the Premium
Atlas compared Austin standard MF rents (avg $2,000/mo for comparable Class A 2BR) against Active Adult comps:
| Community | 1BR Rent | 2BR Rent | Positioning |
|---|
| Watermere at Barton Creek | $2,200–2,800 | $3,000–3,800 | Luxury / top of market |
| Overture Domain | $2,500–3,200 | $3,200–4,000 | Urban luxury |
| Traditions at Onion Creek | $1,800–2,200 | $2,400–2,800 | Mid-market |
| Forum at Olympia Pkwy | $1,600–2,000 | $2,000–2,400 | Value / fringe |
| Radiant (Atlas) | $1,950 | $2,600 | Mid-market / quality |
Atlas positions Radiant between Traditions (mid-market) and Watermere (luxury). At $2,244/mo blended, this represents a ~12% premium over comparable standard Class A MF — consistent with industry data showing 10–15% Active Adult premiums.
Why This Matters for John
- The premium is the whole thesis. Without the 10–12% rent premium, Radiant's NOI drops ~$550K/year and IRR falls to ~18%. The Active Adult premium isn't optional — it's what makes the deal economics work.
- Premium requires premium amenities. The $2.64M amenity package (clubhouse, fitness, pool, pickleball, social director) is the cost of earning the premium. You can't charge 12% more and deliver the same product as a standard apartment.
- Andy should validate. Ask Andy what rent premium his model assumes over standard MF. If it's above 15%, that's aggressive. If it's below 10%, the deal is even more conservative than Atlas assumes.
Verdict: Atlas's 10–12% Active Adult premium is well-supported by Austin comps and national industry data. This is the middle of the range — not aggressive. The key risk is whether Radiant can deliver the amenity and lifestyle experience that justifies the premium. Product execution is everything.
Additional Line-Item Comparisons
| Item | Atlas | Andy (Est.) | Atlas Reasoning |
|---|
| Construction Loan (% LTC) | 60% | ~60% | Standard for ground-up MF. Confirmed in F&F materials. |
| Construction Loan Rate | ~6.5% | ~6.5% | Current market for MF construction loans in Austin. |
| Lease-Up Period | 18–24 mo | Not specified | AA leases up slower than std MF. 55+ renters are more deliberate. |
| Annual Rent Growth | 3.0% | Not specified | Below Austin historical (4.5%). Conservative — AA tenants on fixed income. |
| OpEx Ratio | 39.3% | Not specified | AA runs 37–42%. Atlas at midpoint. Social director adds cost. |
| Developer Fee | 4% | 4% | Per JV operating agreement terms. |
| Bad Debt | 1.5% | Not specified | AA credit quality. Standard MF: 3%. Atlas conservative at 1.5%. |
| Property Taxes (per unit/yr) | $2,400 | Not specified | Travis/Williamson County effective rates for MF product. |
| Hold Period | 5 years | ~5 years | Standard for development + stabilization + hold. |
| Equity Multiple | 1.86× | 1.86× | Confirmed from JAK F&F model (22.7% LP IRR). |
Bottom Line
Atlas and JAK F&F model are aligned on the big numbers. TPC (~$50M), LP IRR (22.7%), equity multiple (1.86×), exit ~$70.7M, land $5.5M, construction Dec 2026, stabilization Mar 2030. F&F raise ($400K Radiant portion) is separate from JV. Three areas worth examining below: The three areas where Atlas's assumptions differ:
Top 3 Differences
-
Construction cost per unit — Atlas is $13K–$33K lower on hard costs ($167K vs. $180–200K). Doesn't change TPC because allocations between hard/soft differ. Andy's number is likely more accurate for this specific project.
-
Active Adult rent premium — Atlas explicitly models a 10–12% premium over standard MF ($2,244/mo blended). Andy's materials don't state the premium explicitly. This is the core economic driver — it should be discussed openly.
-
Stabilized occupancy — Atlas uses 95% (AA industry standard); Andy uses ~94%. Immaterial difference (~$60K/year). Both are reasonable for Active Adult product.
What to ask Andy:
- What Active Adult rent premium is baked into your model vs. comparable standard MF?
- Unit count is confirmed at 214 units.
- What's the amenity budget? Does it match Atlas's $2.64M ($12K/unit)?
- What lease-up timeline is modeled? 18 months? 24 months?
Updated April 14, 2026 · Atlas · JAK: John Burns / Andy Heard / Kent McNeil (33.33% each) · Construction Dec 2026 · Exit ~$70.7M
This assumptions comparison was prepared by Atlas using independently modeled projections and publicly available market research. Andy's numbers are estimated from available F&F materials and JAK operational terms — not from Andy's full project model. Differences may narrow once Andy's complete budget and assumptions are shared.