JAK Development Group

๐Ÿก Radiant Active Adult โ€” Georgetown TX

Overview Notes Pro Forma Decision Memo Assumptions Contracts & Docs
Analysis & Memos
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Atlas Pro Forma โ€” Georgetown TX Model Rebuilt
7-tab pro forma with Georgetown-specific numbers. 214 units, $50M TPC, 22.7% LP IRR, 1.86ร— equity multiple, ~$70.7M exit. Land $5.5M. Construction Dec 2026 โ†’ Stabilization Mar 2030. F&F raise ($400K Radiant portion, 8% pref, 80/20 split) SEPARATE from JV. Permit EXPIRED โ€” $800K re-permit cost included.
Updated April 14, 2026 ยท Atlas ยท JAK: John Burns / Andy Heard / Kent McNeil (33.33% each)
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7-Pass Decision Memo โ€” Georgetown Conditional GO
7-pass investment analysis with Georgetown-specific context. Covers: economics validation (22.7% LP IRR / 1.86ร— / ~$70.7M exit), Georgetown AA market thesis (Sun City proof point), permit EXPIRED ($800K renewal required), JAK entity (John/Andy/Kent 33.33% each), F&F raise ($400K separate from JV), and final GO/NO-GO verdict. Verdict: Conditional GO โ€” validate re-permit path first.
Updated April 14, 2026 ยท Atlas ยท Georgetown-specific analysis
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Assumptions Comparison โ€” Atlas vs. Andy Key Gap: Rents
Atlas Georgetown rents ($1,940 avg) vs. Andy's original Austin assumptions (~$2,200 avg). $260/unit/mo gap is meaningful โ€” Georgetown is structurally cheaper than Austin proper. Novak's confirmed 6.55% YOC already reflects Georgetown reality. Also covers construction cost differences and operating assumptions.
Updated April 14, 2026 ยท Atlas
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Deep Dive Briefings
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Active Adult Market Analysis โ€” Georgetown TX Strongest Submarket
Why Georgetown is the single best market for Active Adult in Texas. Sun City proof point, demand drivers, rent ranges.
April 11, 2026 ยท Atlas
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Georgetown TX is the strongest submarket for Active Adult development in Texas โ€” and arguably in the entire US. The evidence is incontrovertible:

Sun City Georgetown Residents~38,000+
Sun City Homes10,000+
Sun City TypeFor-Sale ONLY โ€” no rental
Purpose-Built AA Rentals in Georgetown~0
Georgetown Population (2025)~90,000
Projected by 2030120,000+
Georgetown Growth RankingTop 5 nationally (Census)
Active Adult Rents (Georgetown)$1,600-$2,200/mo

Why Georgetown for Active Adult โ€” specifically:

  • Sun City is the proof of concept. Del Webb built 10,000+ homes over 20+ years in Georgetown specifically because the demand was there. 38,000 people chose Georgetown as their active adult community. This demand is real, deep, and proven.
  • Sun City residents who want to downsize to rental have ZERO options. A Sun City homeowner who's tired of maintaining their 2,500 SF home and wants a maintenance-free rental? They have to leave Georgetown. Radiant fixes that.
  • Georgetown is a top retirement migration destination. No state income tax, affordable cost of living (vs. California/Northeast), warm weather, excellent healthcare (Baylor Scott & White Georgetown, St. David's Georgetown).
  • Williamson County growth: One of the fastest-growing counties in the US. Austin tech spillover (Dell in Round Rock), Cedar Park/Leander growth corridor. New residents include working professionals 50-65 who will age into the 55+ demographic.
  • Lower costs than Austin: Construction costs 10-15% lower. Property taxes lower (Williamson vs. Travis County). Operating costs lower. This means better margins even with lower rents.
Bottom line: Georgetown has proven 55+ demand (38,000 Sun City residents), zero purpose-built AA rental supply, and top-5 national growth. Radiant enters an unserved market with massive proven demand. This is not speculation โ€” it's filling a gap that Sun City's 20-year track record has documented.
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Competitive Supply โ€” Georgetown & Nearby Minimal Competition
Existing and planned Active Adult communities in Georgetown and surrounding Williamson County. Supply is virtually zero for purpose-built AA rental.
April 11, 2026 ยท Atlas
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There is virtually no purpose-built Active Adult rental product in Georgetown. The competitive landscape is almost entirely for-sale product or general-population apartments.

Georgetown & Williamson County Comps:

  • Sun City Georgetown (Del Webb) โ€” 10,000+ homes, 38,000+ residents. FOR SALE ONLY. Age-restricted 55+. Homes $300K-$600K. This is the demand proof point but NOT a rental competitor. Sun City residents who want to downsize to rental must leave Georgetown.
  • Lago at Brushy Creek โ€” ~200 units near Round Rock/Cedar Park. General population rental. Rents $1,500-$2,100/mo. Not AA-specific but serves some 55+ renters by default.
  • Monarch at Georgetown โ€” ~180 units, general population rental in Georgetown. Rents $1,400-$1,900/mo. Not age-restricted or AA-specific.
  • Various for-sale 55+ communities โ€” Heritage Oaks, The Reserve at Berry Creek. For-sale HOA product, not rental. Different market segment.

Austin Metro AA Rental (farther away):

  • Watermere at Barton Creek โ€” South Austin, 30+ miles from Georgetown. Luxury AA rental. $2,200-$3,500/mo. Different price point and geography.
  • Overture Domain โ€” North Austin, ~20 miles from Georgetown. Urban luxury AA. $2,500-$3,800/mo. Different product and market.
  • Traditions at Onion Creek โ€” South Austin. Mid-market AA rental. $1,800-$2,600/mo. Closest product comp but 40+ miles from Georgetown.
Purpose-Built AA Rental in Georgetown~0 units
For-Sale 55+ in Georgetown10,000+ homes (Sun City alone)
Nearest AA Rental Competition20+ miles (North Austin)
Radiant's Competitive PositionFIRST MOVER
Radiant has zero direct competition in Georgetown. The nearest purpose-built AA rental is 20+ miles south in Austin. Sun City's 38,000 residents prove the demand but offer no rental option. Radiant would be the first-ever purpose-built Active Adult rental community in Georgetown โ€” a genuine first-mover advantage in a market with deep, proven demand.
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Demographic Tailwind โ€” Georgetown / Williamson County Structural
Georgetown-specific demographic data. Population growth, 55+ concentration, migration patterns, income levels.
April 11, 2026 ยท Atlas
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Georgetown and Williamson County have some of the strongest 55+ demographic tailwinds in the country.

Georgetown Population (2025)~90,000
Georgetown Population Growth (2020-2025)+45%
Williamson County Population (2025)~700,000
Williamson County Growth RateTop 10 fastest-growing US counties
Georgetown 55+ Population (est.)~30,000-35,000
Sun City Residents (55+)38,000+
Total 55+ in Georgetown Area65,000-70,000+

Why Georgetown's 55+ demographics are exceptional:

  • Sun City effect: Georgetown already has the highest concentration of 55+ adults per capita of any mid-size Texas city. Sun City alone has 38,000+ residents aged 55+. This creates a self-reinforcing ecosystem โ€” healthcare, services, social networks, and retailers all cater to the 55+ demographic.
  • In-place aging: Williamson County's explosive growth over the past 20 years means a large wave of 40-55 year olds who settled in the 2000s-2010s are now aging into the 55+ cohort. These are established residents who want to stay in the area.
  • Retirement migration: Georgetown is a recognized retirement destination (AARP, Forbes lists). Retirees from California, Colorado, and the Northeast bring significant home equity ($500K-$1M+) โ€” they can afford $1,750-$2,400/mo rents easily.
  • Healthcare infrastructure: Baylor Scott & White Georgetown, St. David's Georgetown, multiple urgent care and specialist facilities. Healthcare access is the #1 requirement for 55+ renters โ€” Georgetown delivers.
  • Cost of living: Georgetown is more affordable than Austin while offering the same quality of life. No state income tax. Lower property taxes in Williamson County. This makes Georgetown rents of $1,750-$2,400 very competitive for retirees coming from higher-cost markets.
Key insight: Georgetown doesn't need to attract 55+ residents โ€” they're already there. With 65,000-70,000+ adults 55+ already living in the Georgetown area (including Sun City), Radiant's 214 units represent 0.3% of the existing population. Even if only 1% of Georgetown's 55+ residents are interested in purpose-built AA rental, that's 650-700 prospects for 214 units. The demand funnel is massive relative to the supply.
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JV Structure & Novak Relationship In Progress
Novak Brothers JV, $2.6M existing debt on site, F&F equity terms, institutional LP structure.
April 11, 2026 ยท Atlas
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JV PartnerNovak Brothers / Rivery Capital
JV ContactJeff Novak
AttorneyChase Waters (Kutak Rock)
Land Contribution$5,000,000 (in-kind)
Existing Site Debt$2,600,000
Novak Net Equity$2,400,000
JAK F&F Equity$5,500,000
Pref Return8% p.a.
JAK Promote Share (F&F)15%
Est. JAK Promote~$2,912,000
F&F Share of Promote~$437,000

Key structural notes:

  • Novak contributes land ($5M) but has $2.6M in debt against it. Net equity is $2.4M. JV ownership % should reflect net equity, not gross land value.
  • The $2.6M debt payoff is handled from construction loan proceeds at closing โ€” this means $2.6M of the $30M CL goes to debt, not construction.
  • Institutional LP enters pari passu with F&F post-CL close. F&F is not subordinated.
  • The $800K pre-development cost ($200K plans + $400K permits + $200K carry) comes from JAK's $5.5M F&F equity โ€” this is the earliest at-risk capital.
Negotiation point: Novak's $2.6M debt needs explicit treatment in the JV docs. Is debt service during pre-development (8 months, ~$120K) Novak's cost or JAK's? Chase Waters should address this. The $200K carry cost in the $800K use of funds likely covers Novak's debt service โ€” confirm this is Novak's obligation, not JAK's.
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Permit Expiry โ€” Risk Assessment #1 Risk
The permit has expired. Plans must be updated for code changes and re-submitted. $800K cost, ~8 months. Full risk analysis.
April 11, 2026 ยท Atlas
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StatusPERMIT EXPIRED
Re-Permit Cost$800,000
Timeline~8 months (SDP)
Probability of Success85-90%
At-Risk Capital$800,000

What happened: Radiant was fully designed and permitted by the City of Georgetown. The permit has since expired (likely due to inactivity/failure to commence construction within the permit window). Building codes have been updated since the original permit, so the plans need to be revised to comply with current codes before re-submitting.

Why it's manageable:

  • The project was previously approved โ€” Georgetown already said yes once
  • Code changes between permit cycles are typically incremental, not fundamental
  • Georgetown is a pro-growth city that wants development
  • The $800K cost is known and budgeted
  • The original architect/engineer team can update plans efficiently

Why it's still a risk:

  • $800K is at risk before construction financing closes
  • 8 months of timeline before construction can start
  • Code changes could be larger than expected (new fire codes, stormwater, ADA)
  • Re-permitting reopens the project to public comment
  • If denied: $800K lost, project dead or requires major redesign
Recommendation: Before committing the full $800K, spend $10-20K on a pre-application conference with Georgetown planning staff. Get informal confirmation that updated plans will be accepted. This is the cheapest risk mitigation available.
More notes will appear here as the deal progresses. Next: re-permit status, construction timeline, Georgetown GC bids, and F&F offering materials.