🤖 Atlas Notes
Lead with Scenario B. Costco opens next month — urgency is real. The BBM value framing ("It's $9M vs $9M") is your strongest negotiating point. Landowner proposal is ready to send post-Gissler call.
📋 Craig's Action Items
⚪ Pending
Confirm topo/pond constraint — is there really ~10 acres unusable? Your site knowledge matters here.
This week
📍 Project Stage
✅ Analysis
→
📍 Negotiation
→
Survey / DD
→
Contract
→
Entitlement
→
Lot Closings
⚡ Action Items
🤖 March 30, 2026
🚨 Urgent — This Week
ALTA + Topo Survey Authorization
| Action | Owner | Due | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gissler call — lock in time (Mon/Tue) | Kent McNeil | Mon / Tue | 🟡 In Progress |
| Send landowner proposal to Gissler (after call) | John Burns | After call | ⚪ Pending |
| JV term sheet to Chase Waters | John / Kent | This week | ⚪ Pending |
| Craig to confirm topo/pond constraint (~10 acres unusable?) | Craig Biggar | This week | ⚪ Pending |
📊 Proposed JV Waterfall — 3-Tier Structure
🤖 Modeled March 31, 2026
Tier 1 — Capital Recovery
70/30
BBM 70% · Landowner 30%
Until BBM receives 1.5x cash in (83K) → Lot 1
Tier 2 — Land Recovery
20/80
BBM 20% · Landowner 80%
Until LO recovers M land credit → Lots 2–5
Tier 3 — True Profit Split
50/50
BBM 50% · Landowner 50%
After both recover basis → Lots 6–9
| Lot | Est. Net Proceeds | Tier | BBM Cumulative | LO Cumulative | BBM Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lot 1 — QT Anchor | ,997,000 | T1+T2 | ,358,686 | ,638,314 | 36,686 ✓ |
| Lot 2 — QSR Pad A | ,663,000 | T2 | ,891,286 | ,768,714 | ,369,286 |
| Lot 3 — QSR Pad B | ,279,000 | T2 | ,347,086 | ,591,914 | ,825,086 |
| Lot 4 — Car Wash | ,708,000 | T2 | ,688,686 | ,958,314 | ,166,686 |
| Lot 5 — Retail Strip A | ,092,000 | T2+T3 | ,344,054 | ,394,946 | ,822,054 |
| Lot 6 — Retail Strip B | ,996,000 | T3 | ,342,054 | 0,392,946 | ,820,054 |
| Lot 7 — Bank/Medical | ,809,000 | T3 | ,246,554 | 1,297,446 | ,724,554 |
| Lot 8 — Outparcel | ,521,000 | T3 | ,007,054 | 2,057,946 | ,485,054 |
| Lot 9 — Remaining | ,340,000 | T3 | $7,677,054 | $13,727,946 | $7,155,054 |
| TOTAL | 1,405,000 | — | $7,677,054 | $13,727,946 | ,155,054 |
🤖 Tiered vs Flat 50/50 — Key Differences
BBM first profit under flat 50/50: Lot 4. Under the tiered structure: Lot 1. That's 3 closings earlier — real money in hand while we're still selling the back half of the site.
BBM after first 2 lot closings: Flat 50/50 = 22K (just capital back, zero profit). Tiered = ,891,286 (+.37M more).
BBM total: Tiered .68M vs Flat .46M — the tiered structure generates .21M more for BBM over the life of the deal. LO still gets 3.7M on a M land contribution (1.53x).
BBM after first 2 lot closings: Flat 50/50 = 22K (just capital back, zero profit). Tiered = ,891,286 (+.37M more).
BBM total: Tiered .68M vs Flat .46M — the tiered structure generates .21M more for BBM over the life of the deal. LO still gets 3.7M on a M land contribution (1.53x).
BBM 2025, LLC — Scenario A (Entitlement Only)
Cash In$522,000
Total Received$7,677,054
Net Profit$7,155,054
Multiple14.7x
First ProfitLot 1 closing
Landowner — Scenario A
Land Contributed$9,000,000
Total Received$13,727,946
Net Return+$4,727,946
Multiple on Land1.53x
First DistributionLot 1 (30% = $1.2M)
⚠️ Key assumption: Net usable = 20 acres. Survey authorization is critical before presenting final numbers. If usable drops to 15 acres, all projections decrease ~25%.
Deal summary filed in OneDrive → Kohlenberg / Kohlenberg_JV_Deal_Summary_March31.txt
📊 Deal Scenarios
🤖 March 30, 2026
Scenario A
Entitlement & Lot Sale
BBM Investment: $522K
Gross Target: $24.5M
Risk: Lower investment, lower return
Scenario B — Recommended ✅
Full Horizontal Development
BBM Investment: $3.08M
Gross Target: $30–32M
Key Framing: "It's $9M vs $9M — not $9M vs $500K"
✅ Lead with this in Gissler call
📋 Project Management
🤖 March 30, 2026
Last Meeting
📅 March 30, 2026 — Maudie's
- Two scenarios confirmed: A (Entitlement & Lot Sale, $522K BBM) and B (Full Horizontal, $3.08M BBM)
- Promote split discussion — John's opening position: 50/50. Willing to go to 45/55 or 40/60. Sensitivity table shared with Kent and Craig.
- Brett Gissler confirmed call Mon/Tue — sent formulated Excel models to Bryce + Brett
- Survey authorization needed before JV finalization
Next Meeting Agenda
📍 Gissler Call — This Week
• Walk through Scenario A and B models
• Discuss JV structure and promote split
• Landowner reaction / counter
• Survey authorization
Open Action Items
🗂️ Tracked Items
| Item | Owner | Due |
|---|---|---|
| Gissler call — lock in time | Kent McNeil | Mon/Tue |
| Walk through Scenario A & B models on call | John | This week |
| Survey authorization (ALTA + Topo) | John Burns | This week |
| JV term sheet to Chase Waters | John / Kent | After call |
💰 Costs & Expenses
🤖 March 30, 2026
| Category | Item | Budget | Actual | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Engineering | ALTA + Topo Survey | $25,000 | $0 | -$25,000 |
| Engineering | Civil Engineering / Plat | $120,000 | $0 | -$120,000 |
| Engineering | TIA (Traffic Impact Analysis) | $35,000 | $0 | -$35,000 |
| Legal | JV Agreement | $50,000 | $0 | -$50,000 |
| Legal | Subdivision / PSAs | $40,000 | $0 | -$40,000 |
| Permits | Comal County Plat Fees | $15,000 | $0 | -$15,000 |
| Contingency | Contingency (15%) | $42,000 | $0 | -$42,000 |
| Other | Project Management (BBM) | $195,000 | $0 | -$195,000 |
| TOTAL | $522,000 | $0 | -$522,000 | |
Budget utilization: 0.0% — No spend yet (deal in negotiation)
💡 Actuals updated manually. Edit via the Cost Tracker spreadsheet.
📋 Last Meeting Recap — March 30, 2026
- Two scenarios analyzed: A ($522K BBM, $24.5M gross) vs B ($3.08M BBM, $30–32M gross)
- Recommendation: Lead with Scenario B — "It's $9M vs $9M, not $9M vs $500K"
- Negotiation brief + landowner proposal built and distributed to team
- Brett Gissler replied — confirmed call Mon/Tue
📅 Next Meeting Agenda
- Gissler call debrief — landowner reaction to structure
- Survey authorization decision
- Craig topo/pond constraint update
- Scenario A vs B — team recommendation finalized
📁 Kohlenberg Project Files
🤖 March 30, 2026
Pro Forma (Live)
BBM · Live Excel · OneDrive
🤖 Last updated by Atlas · March 30, 2026
📂 Open Document →
Scenario A — Entitlement & Lot Sale
BBM · Excel · OneDrive
🤖 Last updated by Atlas · March 30, 2026
📂 Open Document →
Scenario B — Full Horizontal
BBM · Excel · OneDrive
🤖 Last updated by Atlas · March 30, 2026
📂 Open Document →
Negotiation Brief (Internal)
BBM · OneDrive Kohlenberg folder
🤖 Created by Atlas · March 30, 2026
📂 Open Document →
Landowner Proposal Draft
BBM · OneDrive Kohlenberg folder
🤖 Created by Atlas · March 31, 2026
📂 Open Document →
📅 Project Timeline
🤖 March 30, 2026
ASAP — This Week
ALTA + Topo Survey Authorization URGENT
Must authorize before JV finalization to confirm ~20 net usable acres.
This Week (Mon/Tue)
Gissler Call UPCOMING
Brett & Bryce confirmed. Negotiation brief ready. Lead with Scenario B.
This Week (after call)
Send Landowner Proposal UPCOMING
Professional pitch doc ready for Chris via Gissler. Full Horizontal scenario.
April 2026
JV Agreement Execution UPCOMING
Target: BBM Kohlenberg JV, LLC. 70/30 split.
Apr–Jun 2026
Begin Entitlement UPCOMING
ALTA survey, TIA, civil engineering, preliminary plat.
Q1–Q2 2027
First Lot Closings UPCOMING
Lots 1–3 (QT, car wash, QSR).
Past Events
March 30, 2026
Negotiation Brief + Landowner Proposal Built DONE
Internal playbook + external landowner-facing proposal. Distributed to team.
March 30, 2026
Two-Scenario Framework Completed DONE
Scenario A vs B. Recommendation: lead with B.
March 2026
Craig Biggar Flagged Topo/Pond Constraint DONE
~10 acres potentially unusable. Net usable reduced from 30 to 20 acres in model.
March 2026
Deal Identified DONE
I-35 & Kohlenberg Rd, New Braunfels TX. Via Brett & Bryce Gissler, Edge Realty Partners. Adjacent to Costco (opening April 2026).
👥 Key Contacts
Brett Gissler
Edge Realty Partners · Land Broker
📅 Call confirmed Mon/Tue
Bryce Gissler
Edge Realty Partners · Land Broker
Chris (Landowner)
Landowner
Via Brett Gissler